Troyes 2-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 28 Sep 2024

Troyes
2-1 HT 1-0
Metz
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Troyes vs Metz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
55%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
6.35
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
9%
8.03
X/2
25%
4.11
X/X
11%
4.6
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.5
2/X
8%
14.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
24%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
55%
Away Win
50%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Troyes v Metz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Troyes EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 54%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +26%
1.15/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.51
+34% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +96%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
15.5 Crosses 18.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Troyes vs Metz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Metz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.69 xG 1.03
47% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
316 Passes 473
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.07.2023 Troyes Troyes 0-3 Metz Metz HAZ
06.02.2022 Troyes Troyes 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
12.09.2021 Metz Metz 0-2 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
01.02.2019 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
24.08.2018 Troyes Troyes 0-1 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR2
10.07.2018 Troyes Troyes 2-3 HT 0-2 Metz Metz HAZ

Troyes 2-1 Metz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
2-1
AWAY Metz
1.42 xG 1.31
22% Ball Possession 78%
6 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 2
130 Passes 672
63% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Box Touches 22
7 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Troyes vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes squeezed past Metz 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Metz at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Troyes had 22% of the ball to Metz's 78%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.42 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Metz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Troyes and 1.33 for Metz.

What was the final score of Troyes vs Metz?

Troyes 2-1 Metz in the France - Ligue 2 on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Troyes vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Troyes 21%, draw 25%, Metz 55%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Metz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
28 Sep 2024
15:00 Red Star FC 93 vs Paris FC Analysis →