Kagoshima United 3-0 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.17
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.04/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.20
-14% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
343 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-0 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
16.11.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
3-0
AWAY Mito HollyHock
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
200 Passes 341
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United ran out comfortable winners over Mito HollyHock 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mito HollyHock at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 39% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 61%, shots finished 7-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kagoshima United had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kagoshima United and 0.00 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Mito HollyHock?

Kagoshima United 3-0 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mito HollyHock win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 32%, draw 28%, Mito HollyHock 41%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mito HollyHock) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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