Ventforet Kofu 1-2 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.6
No
55%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 31% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.3pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ventforet Kofu EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.22/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.91
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 19.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ventforet Kofu
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
12.11.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-1 HT 0-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
18.02.2023 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 1-2 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
18.06.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
12.03.2022 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
02.10.2021 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 2-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ventforet Kofu
1-2
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
307 Passes 429
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH Ventforet Kofu vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata squeezed past Ventforet Kofu 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Montedio Yamagata found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ventforet Kofu had 43% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 57%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ventforet Kofu had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ventforet Kofu and 0.83 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Ventforet Kofu vs Montedio Yamagata?

Ventforet Kofu 1-2 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ventforet Kofu vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ventforet Kofu win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ventforet Kofu 39%, draw 26%, Montedio Yamagata 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ventforet Kofu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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