Tobol 1-0 Shakhter Karagandy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.32
Draw
17%
4.81
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
5%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
71%
-7.9pp
17%
Draw
18%
-0.4pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhter Karagandy EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.92/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.90
-3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Shakhter Karagandy
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
30.09.2023 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 2-1 HT 0-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
07.06.2023 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
17.05.2023 Tobol Tobol 2-0 HT 0-0 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZKK
14.03.2023 Tobol Tobol 2-1 HT 1-0 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZP
02.10.2022 Tobol Tobol 3-1 HT 1-1 Shakhter Karagandy Shakhter Karagandy KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Shakhter Karagandy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol nicked a narrow win over Shakhter Karagandy 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tobol and 1.00 for Shakhter Karagandy.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Shakhter Karagandy?

Tobol 1-0 Shakhter Karagandy in the Kazakistan - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Shakhter Karagandy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Tobol 64%, draw 17%, Shakhter Karagandy 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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