Smiltene 3-3 Rezekne / BJSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

Smiltene
3-3
Rezekne / BJSS
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Smiltene vs Rezekne / BJSS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.59
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.3pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smiltene v Rezekne / BJSS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Rezekne / BJSS EU Bookmakers 23%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
2.57/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/4.74
+23% / -60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -61%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Smiltene vs Rezekne / BJSS Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Rezekne / BJSS
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Rezekne / BJSS Rezekne / BJSS 0-4 HT 0-2 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
07.10.2023 Rezekne / BJSS Rezekne / BJSS 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
03.06.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 5-1 HT 3-1 Rezekne / BJSS Rezekne / BJSS LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Rezekne / BJSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene and Rezekne / BJSS couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Smiltene at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Smiltene had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Smiltene and 0.67 for Rezekne / BJSS.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Rezekne / BJSS?

Smiltene 3-3 Rezekne / BJSS in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Rezekne / BJSS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smiltene win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 52%, draw 23%, Rezekne / BJSS 25%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Smiltene) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Smiltene) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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