ADT 0-1 Alianza Atletico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
60%
-10.7pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.3pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Atletico EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.41/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.55
-11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 71%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
22.4 Crosses 12.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Alianza Atletico
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.11 xG 0.80
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
182 Passes 244
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 1-2 HT 0-1 ADT ADT PER
24.09.2023 ADT ADT 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
06.05.2023 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 1-1 HT 1-0 ADT ADT PER
10.09.2022 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 2-2 HT 2-1 ADT ADT PER
24.04.2022 ADT ADT 1-2 HT 0-1 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
0-1
AWAY Alianza Atletico
0.89 xG 0.95
73% Ball Possession 27%
18 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
321 Passes 97
81% Pass Accuracy 55%
23 Box Touches 6
34 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ADT vs Alianza Atletico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Atletico edged past ADT 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was ADT at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, ADT had 73% of the ball to Alianza Atletico's 27%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 0.89 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, ADT had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for ADT and 1.20 for Alianza Atletico.

What was the final score of ADT vs Alianza Atletico?

ADT 0-1 Alianza Atletico in the Peru - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Alianza Atletico?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split ADT 49%, draw 30%, Alianza Atletico 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (ADT) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →