Gornik Leczna 1-1 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒20:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.64
Over
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.62
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.49
6+
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Leczna EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.47/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/2.11
-4% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Leczna
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Warta Poznan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.77 xG 1.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
309 Passes 284
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2022 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna POL
06.08.2021 Gornik Leczna Gornik Leczna 0-4 HT 0-1 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
POST-MATCH Gornik Leczna vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Leczna and Warta Poznan couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Leczna at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Warta Poznan led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gornik Leczna and 2.50 for Warta Poznan.

What was the final score of Gornik Leczna vs Warta Poznan?

Gornik Leczna 1-1 Warta Poznan in the Poland - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Leczna vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Leczna win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gornik Leczna 42%, draw 27%, Warta Poznan 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gornik Leczna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Leczna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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