Znicz Pruszkow 1-0 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.91
Over
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.41
2-3
41%
1.79
4-5
23%
3.48
6+
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
48%
-11.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Znicz Pruszkow EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 30%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.47/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/3.12
-11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -53%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Znicz Pruszkow
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
23.04.2023 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
17.09.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 3-4 HT 2-3 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
22.05.2022 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
13.11.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-2 HT 1-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
24.04.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-2 HT 2-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL2
24.10.2020 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 1-2 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Znicz Pruszkow
1-0
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Znicz Pruszkow vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Znicz Pruszkow squeezed past Pogon Siedlce 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Znicz Pruszkow found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Znicz Pruszkow had 50% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 50%, shots finished 20-23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Znicz Pruszkow and 1.50 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Znicz Pruszkow vs Pogon Siedlce?

Znicz Pruszkow 1-0 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Znicz Pruszkow vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Znicz Pruszkow win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Znicz Pruszkow 36%, draw 27%, Pogon Siedlce 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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