Nakhon Ratchasima 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.89/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.87
+33% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +42%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
20.3 Crosses 11.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.57 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
275 Passes 209
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2023 Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
10.09.2022 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 2-1 HT 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
04.05.2022 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 0-4 HT 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nakhon Ratchasima
2-1
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.46 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
276 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nakhon Ratchasima vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nakhon Ratchasima edged past Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Nakhon Ratchasima made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nakhon Ratchasima had 49% of the ball to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 51%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.46 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nakhon Ratchasima and 2.00 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.

What was the final score of Nakhon Ratchasima vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Nakhon Ratchasima 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thailand - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nakhon Ratchasima vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nakhon Ratchasima win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nakhon Ratchasima 39%, draw 24%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nakhon Ratchasima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nakhon Ratchasima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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