Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Sukhothai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nakhon Pathom EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sukhothai EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.00/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.83
-19% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
28.1 Crosses 18.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nakhon Pathom
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sukhothai
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.64
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
180 Passes 354
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Sukhothai Sukhothai 3-1 HT 0-1 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY
19.03.2022 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 1-0 HT 0-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY1
07.11.2021 Sukhothai Sukhothai 2-1 HT 2-0 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nakhon Pathom
0-1
AWAY Sukhothai
1.28 xG 0.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
264 Passes 171
71% Pass Accuracy 62%
36 Box Touches 8
32 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sukhothai nicked a narrow win over Nakhon Pathom 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Sukhothai found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nakhon Pathom had 59% of the ball to Sukhothai's 41%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 1.28 to 0.51 — on chances, Nakhon Pathom could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sukhothai led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.67 for Sukhothai.

What was the final score of Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai?

Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Sukhothai in the Thailand - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nakhon Pathom vs Sukhothai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nakhon Pathom win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nakhon Pathom 39%, draw 29%, Sukhothai 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nakhon Pathom) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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