Sukhothai 3-1 Nakhon Pathom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.07
Over 2.5
41%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
44%
+15.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
56%
-15.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.1pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sukhothai EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nakhon Pathom EU Bookmakers 30%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
1.63/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.95
+7% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
37.7 Crosses 10.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sukhothai
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.03.2022 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 1-0 HT 0-0 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY1
07.11.2021 Sukhothai Sukhothai 2-1 HT 2-0 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sukhothai
3-1
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
1.64 xG 1.69
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
354 Passes 180
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 8
7 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sukhothai vs Nakhon Pathom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sukhothai saw off Nakhon Pathom 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sukhothai as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sukhothai had 64% of the ball to Nakhon Pathom's 36%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.64 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sukhothai and 1.00 for Nakhon Pathom.

What was the final score of Sukhothai vs Nakhon Pathom?

Sukhothai 3-1 Nakhon Pathom in the Thailand - 1st Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sukhothai vs Nakhon Pathom?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sukhothai win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sukhothai 45%, draw 29%, Nakhon Pathom 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sukhothai) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sukhothai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TAY More Thailand - 1st Division
7 Apr 2024
13:30 Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero Analysis →
14:00 Bangkok United vs Thai Port FC Analysis →
14:30 Chonburi vs Ratchaburi Analysis →