URA 1-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.86
Draw
21%
3.18
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
29%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
50%
+5.3pp
20%
Draw
28%
-7.8pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.2pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME URA EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 25%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
0.48/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.21/1.42
-69% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
325 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME URA
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
07.05.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
03.03.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
22.12.2021 URA URA 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME URA
1-1
AWAY Mbarara City
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH URA vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

URA and Mbarara City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had URA at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.

On the day, URA had 59% of the ball to Mbarara City's 41%, shots finished 16-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, URA had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for URA and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of URA vs Mbarara City?

URA 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for URA vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split URA 55%, draw 20%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (URA), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (URA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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