URA vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
URA v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
URA vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
URA
UGA
2-0
HT 1-0
Mbarara City
UGA
URA 1-1 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
URA and Mbarara City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had URA at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.
On the day, URA had 59% of the ball to Mbarara City's 41%, shots finished 16-8.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, URA had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for URA and 0.00 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of URA vs Mbarara City?
URA 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for URA vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split URA 55%, draw 20%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (URA), BTTS No went the other way.