La Serena 1-1 Universidad Chile — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Chile - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
46%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
46%
Away Win
40%
+5.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME La Serena EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Universidad Chile EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.10/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.13
+2% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
16.8 Crosses 19.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME La Serena
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Universidad Chile
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.77 xG 1.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
306 Passes 282
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2025 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile 3-1 HT 2-0 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
09.10.2022 La Serena La Serena 1-2 HT 0-1 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile ŞİL
08.05.2022 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile 2-0 HT 0-0 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
07.09.2021 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile 1-1 HT 0-1 La Serena La Serena ŞİL
11.04.2021 La Serena La Serena 0-0 HT 0-0 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile ŞİL
17.12.2020 La Serena La Serena 0-0 HT 0-0 Universidad Chile Universidad Chile ŞİL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME La Serena
1-1
AWAY Universidad Chile
0.96 xG 1.00
33% Ball Possession 67%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
139 Passes 387
63% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH La Serena vs Universidad Chile
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Serena and Universidad Chile couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Universidad Chile at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, La Serena had 33% of the ball to Universidad Chile's 67%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.96 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universidad Chile led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for La Serena and 1.33 for Universidad Chile.

What was the final score of La Serena vs Universidad Chile?

La Serena 1-1 Universidad Chile in the Chile - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for La Serena vs Universidad Chile?

Before kick-off our model rated an Universidad Chile win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split La Serena 31%, draw 23%, Universidad Chile 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Universidad Chile), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Universidad Chile) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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