MSV Duisburg U19 1-3 Mainz 05 U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - U19 Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
Over 2.5
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.33
No
36%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
29%
4-5 Goals
36%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
19%
+8.8pp
49%
Away Win
58%
-9.2pp
64%
BTTS Yes
71%
-7.0pp
36%
BTTS No
29%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg U19 EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 U19 EU Bookmakers 62%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.46/0.00
-31% / +118% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
219 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 U19 got the better of MSV Duisburg U19 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mainz 05 U19 as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19?

MSV Duisburg U19 1-3 Mainz 05 U19 in the Germany - U19 Bundesliga on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg U19 23%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 U19 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05 U19), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05 U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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