Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alverca v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals
Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
2-2
HT 2-1
Alverca
POR
3-2
HT 1-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Alverca
POR
2-2
HT 0-0
Alverca
POR
1-3
HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
Alverca 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics
Alverca saw off Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Alverca had 43% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 57%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.87 to 1.24.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alverca and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.
What was the final score of Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Alverca 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alverca 44%, draw 25%, Vitoria Guimaraes 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.