Alverca 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.53
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.52
Over 2.5
48%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.99
6+ Goals
7%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.65
X/1
15%
5.46
X/2
13%
5.57
X/X
9%
3.63
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.18
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
36%
+7.9pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.5pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 37%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
0.92/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.97
-26% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
Crosses 19.9
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
02.04.2004 Alverca Alverca 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
30.11.2003 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Alverca Alverca POR
29.04.2002 Alverca Alverca 3-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
22.12.2001 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
03.02.2001 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
11.09.2000 Alverca Alverca 1-3 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
2-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.87 xG 1.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
236 Passes 344
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
7 Box Touches 25
7 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca saw off Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Alverca had 43% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 57%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.87 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alverca and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Alverca 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alverca 44%, draw 25%, Vitoria Guimaraes 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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