Mafra 2-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 28 Oct 2024

📅28/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
44%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.26
6+ Goals
7%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.2pp
44%
Away Win
39%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.3pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.11/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.05
-4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.4 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.03 xG 1.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
384 Passes 343
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-3 HT 2-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
08.10.2023 Mafra Mafra 3-0 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
2-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.77 xG 1.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
174 Passes 278
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra nicked a narrow win over Uniao De Leiria 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 43% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 57%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.77 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mafra had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Mafra and 1.00 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Uniao De Leiria?

Mafra 2-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 28/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mafra 29%, draw 27%, Uniao De Leiria 44%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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