Boca Juniors 3-4 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Cup, 28 Nov 2024

📅28/11/2024 · 🕒03:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
36%
2.77
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.45
Over 2.5
32%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
14%
6.21
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.45
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
13%
5.6
X/2
11%
5.32
X/X
22%
3.3
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.14
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
36%
Draw
32%
+3.1pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.5pp
68%
Under 2.5
65%
+2.4pp
32%
Over 2.5
35%
-2.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.7pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 37%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.49/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.83
+53% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +121% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
260 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
29.3 Crosses 13.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.87 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
333 Passes 360
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.06.2024 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
26.02.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-2 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
03.10.2022 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
10.04.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
25.10.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-0 HT 1-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
08.03.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-7 HT 1-2 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
3-4
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.66 xG 2.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
242 Passes 301
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield squeezed past Boca Juniors 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 36% / 32% — and on the day Velez Sarsfield made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 46% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 54%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.66 to 2.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Velez Sarsfield's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.67 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield?

Boca Juniors 3-4 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Cup on 28/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 32%, draw 36%, Velez Sarsfield 32%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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