Muğlaspor 1-1 GMG Kastamonuspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup, 28 Dec 2025

📅28/12/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
17%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
+0.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
17%
Away Win
22%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Muğlaspor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY GMG Kastamonuspor EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
0.52/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.23
-70% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Muğlaspor
1-1
AWAY GMG Kastamonuspor
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Muğlaspor vs GMG Kastamonuspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Muğlaspor and GMG Kastamonuspor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Muğlaspor at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Muğlaspor had 61% of the ball to GMG Kastamonuspor's 39%, shots finished 11-8.

What was the final score of Muğlaspor vs GMG Kastamonuspor?

Muğlaspor 1-1 GMG Kastamonuspor in the Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup on 28/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Muğlaspor vs GMG Kastamonuspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Muğlaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Muğlaspor 53%, draw 29%, GMG Kastamonuspor 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Muğlaspor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Muğlaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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