Irak 2-3 Ürdün — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup, 29 Jan 2024

Irak
2-3 HT 0-1
Ürdün
📅29/01/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Asian Cup – 2023

Irak vs Ürdün Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.45
Over 2.5
31%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
2.27
No
68%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
44%
2.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
12%
6.1
6+ Goals
5%
34.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.11 — our 44% vs market 40.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.86
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
13%
4.02
X/2
11%
7.22
X/X
18%
3.52
2/1
3%
33.5
2/2
11%
6.49
2/X
7%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.5pp
69%
Under 2.5
65%
+3.6pp
31%
Over 2.5
35%
-3.6pp
32%
BTTS Yes
40%
-8.0pp
68%
BTTS No
60%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Irak v Ürdün — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Irak EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ürdün EU Bookmakers 28%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.18
+2% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Irak vs Ürdün Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Irak
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Ürdün
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.10.2023 Ürdün Ürdün 2-2 Irak Irak HAZ
26.03.2019 Irak Irak 3-2 HT 1-1 Ürdün Ürdün HAZ
12.01.2015 Ürdün Ürdün 0-1 HT 0-0 Irak Irak ASK
14.11.2012 Irak Irak 1-0 HT 0-0 Ürdün Ürdün DKE

Irak 2-3 Ürdün — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Irak
2-3
AWAY Ürdün
0.86 xG 2.24
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 7
335 Passes 221
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
17 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Irak vs Ürdün
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ürdün nicked a narrow win over Irak 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Irak at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (68%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Irak had 57% of the ball to Ürdün's 43%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.86 to 2.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ürdün's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Irak had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Irak and 1.00 for Ürdün.

What was the final score of Irak vs Ürdün?

Irak 2-3 Ürdün in the Asian Cup on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Irak vs Ürdün?

Before kick-off our model rated a Irak win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Irak 43%, draw 33%, Ürdün 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Irak) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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