America de Cali 4-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America de Cali EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.51/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.14
+2% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 72%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
16.6 Crosses 13.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America de Cali
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.21
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
364 Passes 217
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2023 America de Cali America de Cali 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 America de Cali America de Cali KOL
24.09.2023 America de Cali America de Cali 4-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.07.2023 America de Cali America de Cali 1-3 HT 1-2 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
05.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 America de Cali America de Cali KOL
03.10.2022 America de Cali America de Cali 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America de Cali
4-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.73 xG 0.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
171 Passes 340
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America de Cali swept aside Atletico Nacional 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had America de Cali as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America de Cali had 37% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 63%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.73 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for America de Cali and 1.33 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

America de Cali 4-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a America de Cali win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split America de Cali 42%, draw 29%, Atletico Nacional 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America de Cali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America de Cali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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