Penafiel 2-1 CD Feirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Jan 2024

Penafiel
2-1 HT 2-0
CD Feirense
📅29/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Penafiel vs CD Feirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.91
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v CD Feirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Feirense EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +0%
1.36/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.38
-19% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.0 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Penafiel vs CD Feirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
3W-0D-3L
AWAY CD Feirense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
283 Passes 340
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 CD Feirense CD Feirense 2-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
08.04.2023 CD Feirense CD Feirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
23.10.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR2
24.04.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 2-0 HT 1-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR2
11.12.2021 CD Feirense CD Feirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2021 CD Feirense CD Feirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Penafiel 2-1 CD Feirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
2-1
AWAY CD Feirense
1.70 xG 1.29
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
238 Passes 467
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs CD Feirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel squeezed past CD Feirense 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Penafiel had 37% of the ball to CD Feirense's 63%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.70 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 1.00 for CD Feirense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs CD Feirense?

Penafiel 2-1 CD Feirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs CD Feirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 44%, draw 28%, CD Feirense 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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