Estrela 1-4 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Jan 2024

Estrela
1-4 HT 1-2
Benfica
📅29/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estrela vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.18
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
64%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
21%
2.79
6+ Goals
17%
7.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.82 — our 25% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
15.6
1/2
10%
22.15
1/X
6%
23.0
X/1
5%
20.05
X/2
29%
3.43
X/X
7%
7.95
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
25%
1.47
2/X
5%
23.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
11%
+6.1pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.6pp
64%
Away Win
71%
-6.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 75%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.51/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.88
+32% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +17%
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
231 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 83%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
24.5 Crosses 19.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Estrela vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Benfica
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.60 xG 3.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 7
271 Passes 580
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
20.11.2022 Estrela Estrela 2-3 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica PORLC
13.01.2021 Estrela Estrela 0-4 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POK

Estrela 1-4 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-4
AWAY Benfica
0.57 xG 3.28
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
303 Passes 536
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Estrela 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Estrela had 39% of the ball to Benfica's 61%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.57 to 3.28.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Estrela and 3.00 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Benfica?

Estrela 1-4 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Estrela 17%, draw 18%, Benfica 64%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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