Athletic Bilbao 3-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 29 Feb 2024

Athletic Bilbao
3-0 HT 2-0
Atletico Madrid
📅29/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.69
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.44
X/2
13%
5.69
X/X
12%
4.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
30.0
2/2
13%
3.94
2/X
9%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 11% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.9pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 38%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -22%
2.55/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.65
+96% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / -41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
25.9 Crosses 16.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.2

Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.36 xG 0.86
44% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
323 Passes 453
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.02.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
16.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
15.10.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
30.04.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
13.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSSK

Athletic Bilbao 3-0 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3-0
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.78 xG 1.06
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
246 Passes 440
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Madrid 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Athletic Bilbao made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 40% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 60%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.78 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.50 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao 3-0 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 39%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 35%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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