29/02/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Erbil vs Baghdad Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
Over 2.5
51%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
3%
2/2
12%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
21%
Draw
19%
23%
Away Win
11%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Erbil v Baghdad — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Erbil
EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY
Baghdad
EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
57%
Ball Possession
43%
15
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
3
384 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
257 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Erbil vs Baghdad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Erbil swept aside Baghdad 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Erbil as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Erbil vs Baghdad?
Erbil 4-1 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Erbil vs Baghdad?
Before kick-off our model rated a Erbil win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Erbil 56%, draw 21%, Baghdad 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erbil), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Erbil)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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IRAK
More Iraq - Premier League
29 Feb 2024