Al Ahli 1-2 Umm Salal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 29 Feb 2024

📅29/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.27
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.41
No
48%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.58
2-3 Goals
44%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.64
6+ Goals
10%
6.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+4.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.3pp
48%
BTTS No
33%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +16%
1.68/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.77
+3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
15.1 Crosses 12.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Umm Salal
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.16 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
361 Passes 266
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.01.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
15.10.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-1 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KATYK
23.09.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
29.01.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 3-1 HT 2-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
19.09.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
01.08.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
POST-MATCH Al Ahli vs Umm Salal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal edged past Al Ahli 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Al Ahli and 1.50 for Umm Salal.

What was the final score of Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Al Ahli 1-2 Umm Salal in the Qatar League on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli vs Umm Salal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli 44%, draw 22%, Umm Salal 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Ahli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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