Tijuana 1-1 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Feb 2024

Tijuana
1-1 HT 0-0
Monterrey
📅29/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Tijuana vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
40%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+6.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-8.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 52%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.08/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.01
-7% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +40%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
273 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
16.2 Crosses 18.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Tijuana vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.71 xG 1.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
295 Passes 321
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
02.04.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 4-0 HT 3-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
29.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 0-3 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
01.05.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
28.08.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 2-2 HT 1-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
01.03.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Tijuana 1-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-1
AWAY Monterrey
1.04 xG 0.77
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 8
288 Passes 342
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana and Monterrey couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tijuana had 46% of the ball to Monterrey's 54%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.04 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tijuana and 2.50 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Monterrey?

Tijuana 1-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 29/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 33%, draw 27%, Monterrey 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Monterrey), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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