Kapaz 1-6 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 29 Mar 2024

Kapaz
1-6 HT 0-1
Karabağ
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-4 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Kapaz vs Karabağ Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
7.95
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
66%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.96
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
38%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
10%
+6.1pp
18%
Draw
15%
+3.7pp
66%
Away Win
76%
-9.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kapaz v Karabağ — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapaz EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 80%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
0.72/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.30/0.64
+26% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -28%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
218 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Kapaz vs Karabağ Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapaz
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Karabağ
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
04.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 7-1 HT 5-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
27.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 1-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
09.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.02.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
06.11.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Kapaz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ cruised past Kapaz 6-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kapaz and 2.83 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Kapaz 1-6 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapaz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Kapaz 16%, draw 18%, Karabağ 66%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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