Dinamo Brest 4-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
24%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.97
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 24% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
69%
-13.9pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.8pp
24%
Away Win
12%
+12.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Brest EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 15%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -13%
2.22/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/3.01
-2% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Brest
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Smorgon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 3-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
02.07.2023 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 2-1 HT 1-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.11.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
18.06.2021 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 2-2 HT 1-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Brest
4-1
AWAY Smorgon
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dinamo Brest vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Brest swept aside Smorgon 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Dinamo Brest as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Dinamo Brest had 54% of the ball to Smorgon's 46%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dinamo Brest and 1.75 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Dinamo Brest vs Smorgon?

Dinamo Brest 4-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Brest vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Brest 55%, draw 21%, Smorgon 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Brest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Brest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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