OFK Pirin 2-1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
46%
-12.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.5pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+8.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OFK Pirin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Etar Veliko Tarnovo EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.49/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.49
+45% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +108%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME OFK Pirin
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
28.09.2023 Etar Veliko Tarnovo Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0-2 HT 0-2 OFK Pirin OFK Pirin BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OFK Pirin
2-1
AWAY Etar Veliko Tarnovo
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH OFK Pirin vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFK Pirin squeezed past Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; OFK Pirin found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, OFK Pirin had 45% of the ball to Etar Veliko Tarnovo's 55%, shots finished 6-8.

What was the final score of OFK Pirin vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo?

OFK Pirin 2-1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OFK Pirin vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo?

Before kick-off our model rated a OFK Pirin win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split OFK Pirin 34%, draw 32%, Etar Veliko Tarnovo 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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