ML Vitebsk 2-2 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.96
No
44%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.82
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
50%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.8
6+ Goals
6%
17.05
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.74 — our 50% vs market 49.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+9.1pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ML Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
492 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ML Vitebsk
2-2
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ML Vitebsk and Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was ML Vitebsk at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, ML Vitebsk had 53% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 47%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

ML Vitebsk 2-2 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a ML Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split ML Vitebsk 51%, draw 26%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ML Vitebsk), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ML Vitebsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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