Sarasota Paradise 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 29 Mar 2026

📅29/03/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.7
No
40%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
55%
+5.3pp
40%
BTTS No
45%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarasota Paradise EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
Crosses 14.2
Yellow Cards 3.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarasota Paradise
1-0
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
1.10 xG 0.57
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
272 Passes 406
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarasota Paradise squeezed past Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sarasota Paradise found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarasota Paradise had 42% of the ball to Portland Hearts of Pine's 58%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.10 to 0.57.

What was the final score of Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Sarasota Paradise 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine in the USA - USL League 1 on 29/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarasota Paradise vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarasota Paradise win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sarasota Paradise 39%, draw 24%, Portland Hearts of Pine 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarasota Paradise) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sarasota Paradise) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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