Zira 0-1 Araz Nahçıvan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.4
No
54%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
38%
+8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
62%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zira EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 19%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.94/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/2.06
-10% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zira
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
25.02.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-3 HT 0-1 Zira Zira AZERS
09.12.2023 Zira Zira 0-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
01.10.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
POST-MATCH Zira vs Araz Nahçıvan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan edged past Zira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Zira at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Zira and 0.33 for Araz Nahçıvan.

What was the final score of Zira vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Zira 0-1 Araz Nahçıvan in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zira vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zira win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Zira 56%, draw 24%, Araz Nahçıvan 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Zira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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