Necaxa 2-5 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Apr 2024

Necaxa
2-5 HT 0-0
Monterrey
📅29/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.49
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.42
6+ Goals
9%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 26% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+6.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-6.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +8%
1.19/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.22
+14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
301 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.4 Crosses 16.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Necaxa vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.80 xG 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
19.02.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
13.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
15.01.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-3 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
24.10.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.02.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK

Necaxa 2-5 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
2-5
AWAY Monterrey
1.24 xG 1.47
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
200 Passes 457
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey cruised past Necaxa 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Monterrey made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Necaxa had 35% of the ball to Monterrey's 65%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.24 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Monterrey?

Necaxa 2-5 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 37%, draw 27%, Monterrey 36%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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