Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Alianza Lima — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
2-1
HT 1-0
Alianza Lima
PER
2-0
HT 1-0
Melgar
PER
1-0
HT 0-0
Alianza Lima
PER
2-0
HT 2-0
Melgar
PER
1-0
HT 1-0
Alianza Lima
PER
Melgar 1-0 Alianza Lima — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar squeezed past Alianza Lima 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.
On the day, Melgar had 53% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 47%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.21 to 0.77.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Melgar and 0.83 for Alianza Lima.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Melgar 1-0 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melgar 48%, draw 24%, Alianza Lima 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.