Mura 3-1 Aluminij — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Aluminij EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.67/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.31
+14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Aluminij
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 Aluminij Aluminij 2-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
04.11.2023 Mura Mura 1-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
25.08.2023 Aluminij Aluminij 0-1 HT 0-1 Mura Mura SLVN
18.04.2022 Mura Mura 3-0 HT 1-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
19.02.2022 Aluminij Aluminij 0-1 HT 0-1 Mura Mura SLVN
16.10.2021 Mura Mura 3-2 HT 1-1 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
3-1
AWAY Aluminij
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mura vs Aluminij
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura got the better of Aluminij 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mura as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mura had 50% of the ball to Aluminij's 50%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mura had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mura and 0.67 for Aluminij.

What was the final score of Mura vs Aluminij?

Mura 3-1 Aluminij in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Aluminij?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mura win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mura 46%, draw 27%, Aluminij 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mura) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mura) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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