Cerro 1-2 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
48%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
48%
Away Win
55%
-7.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.5pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 59%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
0.64/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.87
-30% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Nacional de Football
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.10.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
03.06.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
04.03.2023 Cerro Cerro 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
28.02.2021 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
07.09.2020 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 5-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
20.10.2019 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
1-2
AWAY Nacional de Football
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football edged past Cerro 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro had 29% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 71%, shots finished 7-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cerro and 2.17 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Nacional de Football?

Cerro 1-2 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cerro 25%, draw 28%, Nacional de Football 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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