Arsenal vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v PSG — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Arsenal 0-1 PSG — Actual Match Statistics
PSG squeezed past Arsenal 1-0 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 32% — and on the day PSG made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arsenal had 48% of the ball to PSG's 52%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.68 to 1.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arsenal.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for PSG.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs PSG?
Arsenal 0-1 PSG in the Champions League on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs PSG?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 35%, draw 32%, PSG 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.