Arsenal 2-0 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

Arsenal
2-0 HT 2-0
PSG
📅01/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.82
Over Pick
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.25
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5 ✗
24%
3.62
6+
12%
14.7
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.62 — our 24% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.2
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
19%
4.02
X/2
8%
9.86
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
9%
7.81
2/X
6%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +16%
1.00/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.76
+18% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
10.0 Crosses 12.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Arsenal vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
1W-2D-0L
AWAY PSG
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
473 Passes 489
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.07.2018 Arsenal Arsenal 5-1 HT 1-0 PSG PSG HAZ
23.11.2016 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 1-1 PSG PSG ŞMP
13.09.2016 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP

Arsenal 2-0 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-0
AWAY PSG
0.71 xG 0.40
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
289 Passes 578
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 26
6 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal beat PSG 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arsenal had 35% of the ball to PSG's 65%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.71 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Arsenal and 1.33 for PSG.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs PSG?

Arsenal 2-0 PSG in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 50%, draw 23%, PSG 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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