Borussia Dortmund 7-1 Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.59
Over Pick
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.78
2-3
39%
2.04
4-5
27%
2.61
6+
14%
6.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.7
X/1
28%
3.91
X/2
6%
12.65
X/X
7%
7.32
2/1
7%
19.25
2/2
9%
8.62
2/X
7%
16.85
Value flag · X/1 at 3.91 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Celtic EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -17%
1.49/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/2.10
+4% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / -26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
468 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
14.2 Crosses 8.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
7-1
AWAY Celtic
2.60 xG 2.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
437 Passes 390
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
41 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund ran out comfortable winners over Celtic 7-1. Half-time: 5-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 7-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 53% of the ball to Celtic's 47%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.60 to 2.13.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Celtic?

Borussia Dortmund 7-1 Celtic in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 58%, draw 21%, Celtic 21%. The final score 7-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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