PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.29
Over Pick
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.92
2-3
39%
1.94
4-5
29%
2.78
6+
10%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.37
1/2
5%
22.7
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
15%
7.04
X/2
12%
5.2
X/X
10%
5.41
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
21%
2.86
2/X
7%
12.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
31%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-4.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.27/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.41/0.74
-8% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +126% / +7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 83%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
15.7 Crosses 13.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.95 xG 1.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
382 Passes 390
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
28.11.2019 Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-0 HT 3-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven AVL
19.09.2019 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP AVL
02.08.2008 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
1-1
AWAY Sporting CP
2.63 xG 1.34
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
474 Passes 317
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven and Sporting CP couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 57% of the ball to Sporting CP's 43%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.63 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 2.33 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Sporting CP?

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Sporting CP in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 36%, draw 26%, Sporting CP 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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