Salzburg 0-4 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
38%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.97
Over
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.7
2-3
43%
1.82
4-5
21%
3.28
6+
11%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.7 — our 25% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.78
1/2
14%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.25
X/1
11%
4.81
X/2
11%
7.4
X/X
9%
4.67
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
13%
5.14
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
38%
Away Win
27%
+10.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 31%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+61% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.4 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
0-4
AWAY Brest
1.62 xG 2.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 0
374 Passes 341
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
40 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest swept aside Salzburg 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Brest made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Salzburg had 52% of the ball to Brest's 48%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.62 to 2.02.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Brest?

Salzburg 0-4 Brest in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 38%, draw 24%, Brest 38%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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