Stuttgart 1-1 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.61
Over Pick
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.96
2-3
40%
2.07
4-5
28%
2.58
6+
12%
5.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.66
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.0
X/1
14%
3.81
X/2
9%
14.5
X/X
8%
7.77
2/1
14%
19.4
2/2
11%
9.95
2/X
8%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.4 — our 14% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.7pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
15%
+11.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.8pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 18%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/2.09
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +83% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
464 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
1-1
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.71 xG 1.00
76% Ball Possession 24%
26 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 0
602 Passes 131
88% Pass Accuracy 62%
47 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart and Sparta Prag couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Stuttgart had 76% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 24%, shots finished 26-14, expected goals 1.71 to 1.00.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Sparta Prag?

Stuttgart 1-1 Sparta Prag in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 52%, draw 21%, Sparta Prag 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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