Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Oct 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
1 - 0 HT 0 - 0
Milan
📅01/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Bayer Leverkusen vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
20%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.51
Over Pick
64%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
16%
5.64
2-3
43%
2.02
4-5
30%
2.63
6+
11%
6.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.07
1/2
2%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
17%
4.32
X/2
8%
10.05
X/X
12%
6.41
2/1 ✗
4%
19.75
2/2
11%
6.55
2/X
5%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 4% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Bayer Leverkusen v Milan — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Bayer Leverkusen The Market 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 25%
Weak Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.92 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.03
1.17 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.76
Bad Attack Strength Bad
Strong Defense Strength Strong
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
454 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 81%
24 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1 - 0
AWAY Milan
1.82 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
518 Passes 497
92% Pass Accuracy 90%
32 Box Touches 34
9 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Bayer Leverkusen vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bayer Leverkusen found just enough to beat Milan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Bayer Leverkusen had 50% of the ball to Milan's 50%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.82 to 1.01.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Milan Result & Final Score

Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 0 Milan in the Champions League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 57%, draw 23%, Milan 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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