Sturm Graz II 4-1 First Vienna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
52%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
20.3
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
7%
9.46
X/2
17%
4.52
X/X
11%
6.17
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
29%
2.19
2/X
8%
13.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.3 — our 7% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.3pp
52%
Away Win
54%
-1.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY First Vienna EU Bookmakers 58%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.36/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.84
+10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +40%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
216 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
1W-2D-2L
AWAY First Vienna
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 First Vienna First Vienna 2-4 HT 1-2 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
24.02.2024 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 1-1 HT 0-1 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
06.08.2023 First Vienna First Vienna 2-2 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
12.05.2023 First Vienna First Vienna 1-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
09.10.2022 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 0-1 HT 0-1 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz II
4-1
AWAY First Vienna
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs First Vienna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz II cruised past First Vienna 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was First Vienna at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sturm Graz II had 50% of the ball to First Vienna's 50%, shots finished 15-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, First Vienna led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Sturm Graz II and 1.40 for First Vienna.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs First Vienna?

Sturm Graz II 4-1 First Vienna in the Austria - 1st Division on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs First Vienna?

Before kick-off our model rated an First Vienna win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 22%, draw 26%, First Vienna 52%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (First Vienna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (First Vienna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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