Botafogo 3-0 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 29 Apr 2026

📅29/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
15%
7.78
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.46
Over 2.5
60%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.29
No
47%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.73
2-3 Goals
35%
2.26
4-5 Goals
28%
2.27
6+ Goals
13%
3.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.12
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
34.0
X/1
17%
3.94
X/2
5%
34.0
X/X
7%
15.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
6%
34.0
2/X
5%
34.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-13.2pp
15%
Draw
10%
+4.7pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+8.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
25%
+15.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
75%
-15.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
40%
+13.3pp
47%
BTTS No
60%
-13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 9%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.33/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.04
-54% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +95%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
391 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
26.1 Crosses 13.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-0
AWAY Independiente
4.06 xG 0.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
34 Total Shots 3
14 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 1
380 Passes 215
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
42 Box Touches 1
32 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo ran out comfortable winners over Independiente 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Botafogo had 62% of the ball to Independiente's 38%, shots finished 34-3, expected goals 4.06 to 0.08.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Independiente?

Botafogo 3-0 Independiente in the Copa Sudamericana on 29/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 69%, draw 15%, Independiente 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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