Paraguay 1-4 Brezilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa America, 29 Jun 2024

Paraguay
1-4 HT 0-3
Brezilya
📅29/06/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Copa America – 2024

Paraguay vs Brezilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.78
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
64%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.9
Over 2.5
57%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.58
6+ Goals
13%
14.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
16.75
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
5%
24.85
X/1
6%
18.6
X/2
14%
3.24
X/X
8%
6.21
2/1
6%
130.0
2/2
43%
1.59
2/X
5%
23.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
10%
+7.1pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.3pp
64%
Away Win
71%
-6.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
49%
-5.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
51%
+5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paraguay v Brezilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paraguay EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Brezilya EU Bookmakers 75%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -33%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
264 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 455 · 86%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Paraguay vs Brezilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paraguay
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Brezilya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.45 xG 2.30
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
208 Passes 454
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.02.2022 Brezilya Brezilya 4-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
09.06.2021 Paraguay Paraguay 0-2 HT 0-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
28.06.2019 Brezilya Brezilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay AKU
29.03.2017 Brezilya Brezilya 3-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
30.03.2016 Paraguay Paraguay 2-2 HT 1-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
28.06.2015 Brezilya Brezilya 1-1 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay AKU

Paraguay 1-4 Brezilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paraguay
1-4
AWAY Brezilya
0.87 xG 3.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
331 Passes 407
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paraguay vs Brezilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya swept aside Paraguay 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Paraguay had 45% of the ball to Brezilya's 55%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 0.87 to 3.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Paraguay and 2.00 for Brezilya.

What was the final score of Paraguay vs Brezilya?

Paraguay 1-4 Brezilya in the Copa America on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paraguay vs Brezilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Paraguay 17%, draw 19%, Brezilya 64%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AKU More Copa America
29 Jun 2024
01:00 Kolombiya vs Kosta Rika Analysis →