Botafogo SP 1-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 29 Jun 2024

Botafogo SP
1-1 HT 1-0
Sport Recife
📅29/06/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.52
Over 2.5
31%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.03
No
65%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
44%
2.3
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
13%
5.31
6+ Goals
8%
33.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.3 — our 44% vs market 36.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.6pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.3pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.9pp
69%
Under 2.5
62%
+7.2pp
31%
Over 2.5
38%
-7.2pp
35%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.7pp
65%
BTTS No
55%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo SP v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
0.87/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.91
-28% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.6 Crosses 19.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Sport Recife
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.04 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
344 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.09.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
20.05.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
14.11.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-2 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
17.08.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2

Botafogo SP 1-1 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
1-1
AWAY Sport Recife
0.30 xG 1.39
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
172 Passes 448
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
6 Box Touches 23
6 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP and Sport Recife shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (65%) missed.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 32% of the ball to Sport Recife's 68%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.30 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Botafogo SP and 2.25 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife?

Botafogo SP 1-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo SP win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 34%, draw 32%, Sport Recife 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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