Coritiba 1-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 29 Jun 2024

Coritiba
1-1 HT 0-0
Vila Nova
📅29/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Coritiba vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.68
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Coritiba v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 22%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.52/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.97
+23% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
20.9 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9

Coritiba vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.73 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
304 Passes 338
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.09.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.06.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
19.10.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 2-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
24.07.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.09.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 2-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
26.05.2018 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2

Coritiba 1-1 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-1
AWAY Vila Nova
1.91 xG 0.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
25 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
367 Passes 269
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 8
39 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba and Vila Nova couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Coritiba at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Coritiba had 57% of the ball to Vila Nova's 43%, shots finished 25-12, expected goals 1.91 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Coritiba and 0.67 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Vila Nova?

Coritiba 1-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 50%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Coritiba), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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