Atletico Ottawa 4-3 Forge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 29 Jun 2024

Atletico Ottawa
4-3 HT 1-0
Forge
📅29/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Atletico Ottawa vs Forge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Ottawa v Forge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Forge EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
1.14/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.78
+21% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +37%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.7 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atletico Ottawa vs Forge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Ottawa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Forge
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.77 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 426
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 3-0 HT 1-0 Forge Forge CAPL
08.10.2023 Forge Forge 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa CAPL
27.08.2023 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 0-0 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL
26.06.2023 Forge Forge 4-3 HT 3-1 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
27.05.2023 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 0-1 HT 0-0 Forge Forge CAPL
31.10.2022 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 0-2 HT 0-1 Forge Forge CAPL

Atletico Ottawa 4-3 Forge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Ottawa
4-3
AWAY Forge
1.54 xG 0.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
343 Passes 414
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Ottawa vs Forge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Ottawa squeezed past Forge 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Atletico Ottawa made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Ottawa had 46% of the ball to Forge's 54%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.54 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Ottawa and 1.17 for Forge.

What was the final score of Atletico Ottawa vs Forge?

Atletico Ottawa 4-3 Forge in the Kanada - Premier League on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Ottawa vs Forge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Ottawa 35%, draw 28%, Forge 37%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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