Memphis 901 5-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 29 Jun 2024

📅29/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Memphis 901 EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +1%
1.40/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.70
+0% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
16.2 Crosses 16.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Memphis 901
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.60 xG 2.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
394 Passes 278
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.07.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 6-0 HT 3-0 Memphis 901 Memphis 901 USLP
10.07.2022 Memphis 901 Memphis 901 3-1 HT 2-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Memphis 901
5-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.25 xG 0.96
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
264 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Memphis 901 vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Memphis 901 swept aside Phoenix Rising 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Memphis 901 as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Memphis 901 had 42% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 58%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.25 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Memphis 901 and 3.50 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Memphis 901 vs Phoenix Rising?

Memphis 901 5-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 29/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Memphis 901 vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Memphis 901 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Memphis 901 44%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Memphis 901) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Memphis 901) ✗ Under 2.5
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